{"id":1767,"date":"2020-02-12T23:42:22","date_gmt":"2020-02-12T20:42:22","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/nalog.fr\/lv6-pazimes-pec-kuram-var-prognozet-nekustama-ipasuma-cenu-pieaugums\/"},"modified":"2020-02-12T23:42:22","modified_gmt":"2020-02-12T20:42:22","slug":"lv6-pazimes-pec-kuram-var-prognozet-nekustama-ipasuma-cenu-pieaugums","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/nalog.fr\/lv\/lv6-pazimes-pec-kuram-var-prognozet-nekustama-ipasuma-cenu-pieaugums\/","title":{"rendered":"6 paz\u012bmes, p\u0113c kur\u0101m var prognoz\u0113t nekustam\u0101 \u012bpa\u0161uma cenu pieaugums"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>K\u0101 zin\u0101ms, pirkt nekustamo \u012bpa\u0161umu v\u0113rts, kad tirgus sasniedzis zem\u0101ko punktu, un p\u0101rdot \u2014 kulmin\u0101cijas punkt\u0101 par maksim\u0101lu cenu. Tom\u0113r, izmaksas uz vietas vienm\u0113r ietekm\u0113 daudzi faktori, un t\u0101p\u0113c investoram ir svar\u012bgi izv\u0113l\u0113ties piem\u0113rot\u0101ko strat\u0113\u0123iju un sp\u0113tu paredz\u0113t, k\u0101 r\u012bkosies cenas konkr\u0113taj\u0101 laika spr\u012bd\u012b. &#8220;\u0422\u0440\u0430\u043d\u0438\u043e&#8221; st\u0101sta, p\u0113c k\u0101d\u0101m paz\u012bm\u0113m var noteikt, vai j\u016bsu \u012bpa\u0161ums ir d\u0101rg\u0101ki vai l\u0113t\u0101ki tuv\u0101kaj\u0101 n\u0101kotn\u0113:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>ekonomikas izaugsme (IKP),<\/li>\n<li>labkl\u0101j\u012bbas pieaugumu vid\u0113j\u0101 klase,<\/li>\n<li>palielin\u0101t b\u016bvniec\u012bbas apjomu,<\/li>\n<li>naftas cenu pieaugums un energoresursu,<\/li>\n<li>lieli starptautiski notikumi,<\/li>\n<li>infrastrukt\u016bras att\u012bst\u012bba.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h2 id=\"re\">Ekonomikas izaugsme (IKP)<\/h2>\n<p>Ekonomikas izaugsmi, rezult\u0101t\u0101 palielin\u0101tos pirktsp\u0113ja un iedz\u012bvot\u0101ju labkl\u0101j\u012bbas l\u012bme\u0146a. Savuk\u0101rt tas noved pie palielin\u0101t dar\u012bjumu skaitu tirg\u016b, un, k\u0101 sekas, nekustamo \u012bpa\u0161umu cenu k\u0101pumu. Piem\u0113ram, Sp\u0101nij\u0101 un It\u0101lij\u0101 IKP, gan m\u0101jok\u013cu cenas pieauga no 2000. l\u012bdz 2008. gada, kad s\u0101k\u0101s pasaules finan\u0161u kr\u012bze, un jau s\u0101kot ar 2009. gada ab\u0101s valst\u012bs \u0161ie r\u0101d\u012bt\u0101ji ir samazin\u0101ju\u0161ies.<\/p>\n<p>     <i><\/i><\/p>\n<p>     <i><\/i><\/p>\n<h2 id=\"rbsk\">Labkl\u0101j\u012bbas pieaugumu vid\u0113j\u0101 klase<\/h2>\n<p>Liel\u0101k\u0101 da\u013ca nekustamo \u012bpa\u0161umu pirc\u0113ji \u2014 vidussl\u0101\u0146a p\u0101rst\u0101vji. Izmai\u0146as ie\u0146\u0113mumu \u0161\u0101 soci\u0101l\u0101 starpsl\u0101\u0146a liel\u0101 m\u0113r\u0101 ietekm\u0113 piepras\u012bjums un attiec\u012bgi tirgus cenas. Kopum\u0101 valst\u012bs, kur vid\u0113j\u0101 klase, kas \u0101tri audz\u0113\u0161ana rich, cenas aug \u0101tr\u0101k, un otr\u0101di.<\/p>\n<p>Piem\u0113ram, no 2000. &#8211; 2015.gad\u0101 vid\u0113jais gada pieaugums labkl\u0101j\u012bbas \u0161\u012bs klases Filip\u012bnas un Krievija bija 11 %, bet nekustamo \u012bpa\u0161umu cenas \u0161aj\u0101s valst\u012bs par to pa\u0161u periodu pieauga vid\u0113ji par 7 un 9% gad\u0101, attiec\u012bgi. Francij\u0101 un \u0160veic\u0113 vid\u0113jais gada pieaugums labkl\u0101j\u012bbas \u0161\u012bs iedz\u012bvot\u0101ju grupas bija 7 %, bet pieaugums m\u0101jok\u013cu cenas \u2014 5 un 4 %. Jap\u0101n\u0101 ien\u0101kumu l\u012bmeni, \u0161\u0101du pilso\u0146iem par 15 gadiem nav main\u012bjies, bet nekustam\u0101 \u012bpa\u0161uma, ja \u0161\u012b samazin\u0101j\u0101s par 2 %.<\/p>\n<p>     <i><\/i><\/p>\n<h2 id=\"uos\">Palielin\u0101t b\u016bvniec\u012bbas apjomu<\/h2>\n<p>Ros\u012bba b\u016bvniec\u012bbas nozar\u0113 liecina par to, k\u0101 uzlabot situ\u0101ciju nekustam\u0101 \u012bpa\u0161uma tirg\u016b. B\u016bvniec\u012bbas apjomi s\u0101k palielin\u0101ties, pieaugot atjauno\u0161anas piepras\u012bjumu. T\u0101, b\u016bvniec\u012bbas tempi Sp\u0101nij\u0101 p\u0101rst\u0101ja samazin\u0101ties, jo 2013-2014 gados, un kop\u0101 ar to s\u0101ka pieaugt nekustam\u0101 \u012bpa\u0161uma cenas.<\/p>\n<p>     <i><\/i><\/p>\n<p>     <i><\/i><\/p>\n<h2 id=\"rcnne\">Naftas cenu pieaugums un energoresursu<\/h2>\n<p>Kad naftas cenas pieaugs, pieaugs ar\u012b nekustam\u0101 \u012bpa\u0161uma cenas. T\u0101tad, saska\u0146\u0101 ar Savills, fona \u0434\u0435\u0448\u0435\u0432\u0435\u044e\u0449\u0435\u0439 naftas no 2007. l\u012bdz 2009. gadam dz\u012bvok\u013ci Maskav\u0101 samazin\u0101j\u0101s par 51 %, bet, kad janv\u0101r\u012b-febru\u0101r\u012b 2009 naftas cenas s\u0101ka palielin\u0101ties, kvadr\u0101tmetra cena ar\u012b g\u0101ja uz aug\u0161u. 2015. gad\u0101 naftas r\u0101d\u012bja negat\u012bvu tendenci, un cenas ar\u012b samazin\u0101j\u0101s.<\/p>\n<p>\u0160\u0101da situ\u0101cija ir rakstur\u012bga ne tikai \u044d\u043d\u0435\u0440\u0433\u043e\u0437\u0430\u0432\u0438\u0441\u0438\u043c\u044b\u0445 tirgiem, bet ar\u012b uz valst\u012bm, \u0438\u043c\u043f\u043e\u0440\u0442\u0438\u0440\u0443\u044e\u0449\u0438\u0445 e\u013c\u013ca: l\u0113ti energoresursi samazina izdevumus, iedz\u012bvot\u0101ju un uz\u0146\u0113mumu, attiec\u012bgi, atbr\u012bvosies l\u012bdzek\u013ci, lai ieg\u0101d\u0101tos nekustamo \u012bpa\u0161umu, kas noved pie piepras\u012bjuma pieaugumu un cenu tirg\u016b.<\/p>\n<p>     <i><\/i><\/p>\n<h2 id=\"kms\">Lieli starptautiski notikumi<\/h2>\n<p>Lielie starptautiskie notikumi (Olimpisk\u0101s sp\u0113les, pasaules \u010cempion\u0101ts futbol\u0101, vispasaules izst\u0101des un t\u0101 t\u0101l\u0101k) noved pie augst\u0101k\u0101m cen\u0101m m\u0101jok\u013cu tuvum\u0101, kur r\u012bkot \u0161o pas\u0101kumu. Reiz\u0113m tie ir notikumi, kas ir ilgsto\u0161a ietekme uz tirgu, piem\u0113ram, &#8220;efektu Olimpi\u0101des&#8221; v\u0113rojama pils\u0113t\u0101s-\u0445\u043e\u0437\u044f\u0435\u0432\u0430\u0445 Sp\u0113\u013cu vair\u0101kus gadus p\u0113c sacens\u012bbu norises. T\u0101, At\u0113n\u0101s (norises vieta Vasaras sp\u0113les 2004) un Londonas (2012) m\u0101jok\u013cu cenas l\u012bdz Olimpi\u0101des aug m\u0113ren\u0101 temp\u0101, bet p\u0113c tam strauji g\u0101ja uz aug\u0161u. 2015. gad\u0101, dienu pirms Olimpiskaj\u0101m sp\u0113l\u0113m Rio-de-\u017daneiro, cenas \u0161aj\u0101 pils\u0113t\u0101 jau pieauga tik \u013coti, ka tirg\u016b izveidojies burbulis. Olimpi\u0101de-2020 notiks Tokij\u0101, un eksperti sagaida nekustam\u0101 \u012bpa\u0161uma cenu pieaugums jap\u0101nas galvaspils\u0113t\u0101.<\/p>\n<p>     <i><\/i><\/p>\n<p>     <i><\/i><\/p>\n<p>T\u0101pat tirgu ietekm\u0113 ar\u012b citi lielie notikumi. Piem\u0113ram, Dubai prognoz\u0113 nekustam\u0101 \u012bpa\u0161uma cenu pieaugums sakar\u0101 ar piepras\u012bjumu pasaules izst\u0101des &#8220;Expo 2020&#8221;. Saska\u0146\u0101 ar m\u0101jas lap\u0101 ArabianBusiness.com m\u0101jok\u013cu liel\u0101kaj\u0101 pils\u0113t\u0101 AAE s\u0101kumu uz aug\u0161u, jau novembr\u012b 2014, uzreiz p\u0113c tam, kad tika pazi\u0146ots, ka pas\u0101kum\u0101 tiks veikta Dubaij\u0101: no novembra l\u012bdz decembrim 2014 nekustamo \u012bpa\u0161umu, kas atrodas blakus laukumiem, izv\u0113l\u0113to, lai veiktu &#8220;Expo 2020&#8221;, ir pieaudzis cenu par 9 %.<\/p>\n<h2 id=\"ri\">Infrastrukt\u016bras att\u012bst\u012bba<\/h2>\n<p>B\u016bvniec\u012bba starptautisko lidostu, lielo kl\u012bniku, tilti un citi lieli infrastrukt\u016bras projekti, noved pie t\u0101, ka nekustam\u0101 \u012bpa\u0161uma cenas apk\u0101rt\u0113jo teritoriju aug \u0101tr\u0101k, nek\u0101 cit\u0101s pils\u0113tas da\u013c\u0101s.<\/p>\n<p>Piem\u0113ram, saska\u0146\u0101 ar Knight Frank, cenas uz londonas nekustamo \u012bpa\u0161umu, kas atrodas zon\u0101s, kas atrodas blakus viet\u0101m, \u0113kas stacijas \u0101trgaitas dzelzce\u013ca Crossrail (\u0161obr\u012bd tas ir liel\u0101kais infrastrukt\u016bras projekts Eirop\u0101), pieaug vid\u0113ji par 5 % \u0101tr\u0101k, nek\u0101 cit\u0101s jom\u0101s britu galvaspils\u0113tas.<\/p>\n<p>V\u0113l viens piem\u0113rs: inform\u0101cijas turku Centra strat\u0113\u0123isk\u0101s pl\u0101no\u0161anas, nekustam\u0101 \u012bpa\u0161uma invest\u012bcijas (Gayrimenkul I\u00e7in Strateji Platformu) uzskata, ka \u0441\u0442\u0430\u0440\u0442\u043e\u0432\u0430\u0432\u0448\u0435\u0435 2014. gad\u0101 b\u016bvniec\u012bba tre\u0161\u0101s Stambulas lidostas noveda pie augst\u0101kas cenas par nekustamo \u012bpa\u0161umu piegu\u013co\u0161\u0101s teritorij\u0101s. P\u0113c Centra datiem, zeme ir tuvu lidostai, un 2013. gad\u0101 maks\u0101ja 20-30 eiro\/m2, bet 2015. gad\u0101 \u2014 jau 77 eur\/m2.<\/p>\n<p>Tiem, kas p\u0113rk nekustamo \u012bpa\u0161umu ar invest\u012bciju m\u0113r\u0137is, es ieteiktu ieg\u0101d\u0101ties dz\u012bvok\u013ca \u012bpa\u0161umu lab\u0101 rajon\u0101 ar att\u012bst\u012bbas potenci\u0101lu. Ide\u0101l\u0101 gad\u012bjum\u0101 tas b\u016btu piegu\u013co\u0161u pie \u044d\u043b\u0438\u0442\u043d\u043e\u043c\u0443 rajons, m\u0101jokli, kur\u0101 \u0161odien atrodas vid\u0113j\u0101 cenu diapazon\u0101, bet p\u0113c 10-15 gadiem var k\u013c\u016bt d\u0101rga. Nekustamais \u012bpa\u0161ums vienm\u0113r ir piepras\u012bjums, bet iedz\u012bvot\u0101ju skaits pils\u0113t\u0101s b\u016bs tikai palielin\u0101s, un rajoni, blakus uz centr\u0101lo un elites, lemts k\u013c\u016bt d\u0101rgi, t\u0101p\u0113c dz\u012bvok\u013ci t\u0101du daudzsolo\u0161u viet\u0101s \u2014 tas ir lab\u0101kais izlase. Turkl\u0101t nepiecie\u0161am\u012bbas gad\u012bjum\u0101 to var\u0113s p\u0101rdot bez atlaid\u0113m.<\/p>\n<p>            <b class=\"citation-author-name\">Georgijs \u041a\u0430\u0447\u043c\u0430\u0437\u043e\u0432<\/b><\/p>\n<p> Vad\u012bt\u0101js un dibin\u0101t\u0101js Tranio<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;\u0422\u0440\u0430\u043d\u0438\u043e&#8221; iesaka sekot l\u012bdzi notikumiem finan\u0161u tirgos un izv\u0113l\u0113ties vietu ieguld\u012bjumiem, lai saska\u0146\u0101 ar prognoz\u0113to cenu dinamiku.<\/p>\n<p>J\u016blija \u041a\u043e\u0436\u0435\u0432\u043d\u0438\u043a\u043e\u0432\u0430, &#8220;\u0422\u0440\u0430\u043d\u0438\u043e&#8221;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>K\u0101 zin\u0101ms, pirkt nekustamo \u012bpa\u0161umu v\u0113rts, kad tirgus sasniedzis zem\u0101ko punktu, un p\u0101rdot \u2014 kulmin\u0101cijas punkt\u0101 par maksim\u0101lu cenu. 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