After the devaluation of the ruble Russian buyers purchase abroad less housing but more commercial real estate
After the devaluation of the ruble in late 2014 — early 2015 Russian buyers began to buy less real estate abroad. This is evidenced by the results of a survey conducted by the company “Trani” at the end of 2015 among the more than 500 foreign real estate agencies. The majority of respondents indicated that the total number of transactions with customers from countries of the former Soviet Union fell, however, income property, by contrast, began to use them in great demand.
The total number of transactions decreased
The majority of respondents (74 %) stated that after the currency crisis the number of transactions decreased. The index of buyers ‘ interest in the diagram is the difference between the number of respondents “the number of transactions has increased” and “the number of transactions has decreased”. Particularly low is the index in Thailand and France (all respondents noted a decrease in the number of transactions), as well as in Montenegro, Bulgaria and Turkey (index -85 % or even lower). Less likely to report a reduction in the number of transactions, realtors in Greece, the Czech Republic and Hungary (−25−30 %).
The survey results correlate with the statistics of Google searches, reflecting the interest of Russians to buy overseas property. Judging by the dynamics of search queries in the Internet, real estate has become less popular in all countries, except the UK (+1.2 %) and Hungary (+0.3 percent).
Increased demand for commercial real estate
Despite the overall decline in the number of customers from Russia and other countries of the former Soviet Union, among them were more of those who invest in rental property. In a similar survey conducted by “Tranio” in 2013, more than half of respondents (56 %) noted that Russian buyers of commercial properties little or not at all, but in 2015, this opinion is shared by only 27% of agents. The share of those who believes that many Russian investors increased from 44% to 73%.
The number of realtors, who noted a visible or dominant share of Russian buyers of commercial real estate, %
| 2013 | 2015 | |
|---|---|---|
| All countries | 44 | 73 |
| UK | 67 | 80 |
| Germany | 89 | 82 |
| Spain | 37 | 65 |
| Italy | 32 | 75 |
| France | 00 | 50 |
In countries that are traditionally popular for investment (e.g. UK and Germany), the structure of responses has changed little. The demand for commercial property grew where once Russian buyers bought mainly holiday homes for themselves. For example, in Spain the proportion of respondents who indicated that these investors acquire income property increased from 37% in 2013 to 65% in 2015, Italy from 32 to 75 %. In France in 2013, none of the respondents noted that Russian investors are showing a marked interest in commercial real estate, and in 2015 this option is indicated for 50 % of the respondents. In addition, according to the statistics of search queries in Google regarding the purchase of real estate abroad, after the devaluation of the ruble, the Russians became interested in commercial facilities 10% frequently.
The shift of interest towards profitable real estate due to the fact that in a period of instability at home investors seek to move funds abroad. The results of the 2013 survey, political and economic stability — a key factor in the purchase of objects in Germany and the UK. And in these countries most of the realtors, noted that many Russian investors acquire commercial real estate.
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List popular among Russian buyers countries before and after the devaluation of the national currency remains unchanged: the analysis of web queries revealed that the most popular markets among our countrymen from Spain, USA and Bulgaria. In addition, the majority of respondents (78 %) believe that expectations of return investors have not changed. About half of the respondents said that the average cost of the acquired property decreased, and about the same — what remains the same.
In General, in terms of the currency crisis Russian-speaking customers were less likely to acquire housing for themselves and more likely to invest in profitable real estate. According to forecasts of experts of “Tranio”, to improve the economic situation in Russia, the trends continue: the appetite of investors will remain moderate, and the number of transactions will not grow.
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“Tranio” will continue to publish articles on the basis of a study on the investment of Russian buyers in residential and commercial property abroad in November and December 2015 and will present the full study in January 2016.
Yulia Kozhevnikova, “Tranio”
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