According to analysts of Colliers, in 2016, investment in commercial real estate in Europe will continue to grow. That forecast join experts Savills who predict the growth in this segment of 3-5% in relation to 2015. Research another real estate market, JLL, covers, in addition to Europe, the middle East and Africa and shows that the total volume of European investment in rental property will remain at the level of the previous year.
The most active buyers of commercial real estate in Europe in 2016 will be investors from the US and Asia. According to consulting company PwC, the majority of them (61 %) expect long-term investment from 5 to 10 years, so those who are going to buy property in 2016, with a high probability sell it no earlier than 2021.
According to the forecasts of Colliers, as in previous years, most of the investment in 2016, will attract office properties. However, other sectors will also remain in demand.
Offices. Currently, the average proportion of vacant office space in Europe is 8.4 %, two thirds of whom, according to Savills, belong to the old Fund. On this basis, it can be expected that high demand from investors will benefit from the projects Value Added, the essence of which — the purchase of properties in poor condition for renovation and resale.
Warehouse real estate. The volume of online sales in 2015 increased by 22 %, and in 2016 will increase by approximately the same amount, respectively, the demand for warehouses will continue to increase. According to a survey by Colliers in 2016 warehouses will be the most popular after the office segment of the market, investors from the UK and from Africa and the Middle East.
Trade objects. Will be the most profitable shopping centers in popular areas, in cities with a growing population and tourist flow (London, Paris, Munich, Madrid, Berlin). According to the Colliers survey, 41 % of investors from continental Europe to 2016 will choose investments in shopping centers.
Housing. Residential (nursing homes, student apartments, studios) will increasingly be used as a tool of diversification of the portfolio of commercial properties and is especially popular in the UK, Germany and France. Thus, according to the PwC study, 60 % of respondents in apartments and student apartments are not an alternative investment tool, and the main object of investment.
Land. According to the PwC survey, 48 % of investors agree with the statement that the objects in the premium locations is overrated, and 52% of respondents believe that the purchase of land for construction is an affordable way to purchase real estate in expensive markets. In addition, such a policy investor is a way to increase the yield, which has tended to decline in affluent areas of major European cities.
According to a survey by PwC, in 2016, the investors find the most promising investments in street retail and nursing homes. According to the respondents, in the near future these types of property will bring the highest return.
According to the website Trading Economics, in 2016 most will grow real estate prices in Turkey (+12.7 per cent). The price increase more than 4% is expected also in the UK, Italy and Germany.
In the longer term, from 2016 to 2020, will be the most expensive items in Turkey (59 %), Italy and Germany (over 20 %). An increase of more than 15 % projected in Greece, France, the UK and Austria.
Among the falling markets will be Croatia, Bulgaria and Montenegro. Negative forecast Trading Economics in relation to these countries due to a weaker economy in the region relative to Western Europe, and also the fact that during the crisis investors are focused on more stable markets, including the UK and Germany.
| Country | I-IV quarters 2016 | With the first quarter of 2016 2020 |
|---|---|---|
| Turkey | 12,7 | 59,3 |
| Italy | 5,3 | 23,2 |
| Germany | 4,8 | 22,4 |
| Greece | -5,5 | 16,7 |
| France | 2,9 | 16,7 |
| UK | 6,5 | 15,9 |
| Austria | 3,6 | 15,3 |
| Cyprus | 3,3 | 4,8 |
| Spain | 0,8 | 2,7 |
| Switzerland | 0,9 | 2,6 |
| Portugal | 1,2 | 1,5 |
| Finland | -0,9 | — |
| Slovenia | -0,7 | -0,2 |
| Hungary | -0,8 | -0,5 |
| Latvia | -0,8 | -0,8 |
| Czech Republic | -1,9 | -0,9 |
| Croatia | -0,7 | -1,2 |
| Bulgaria | -1,1 | -1,7 |
| Montenegro | -3,5 | -2,2 |
As for the markets of individual cities, according to the PwC survey, the greatest potential of price growth and rental rates in 2016 will be the cities of Northern Europe and the markets, recently held the bottom of the cycle (Madrid, Lisbon, Milan). Thus, according to analysts of Colliers, the most investments will receive the traditionally popular markets — London, Paris and the “big seven” of Germany.
A survey of investors conducted by PwC, revealed that this year the majority of respondents believe the most promising investments in real estate of Berlin. In 2015, along with Paris, the capital of Germany ranked second in Europe in terms of attracted investments (10 billion euros). Analysts believe that in 2016 in Berlin will grow and the volume of investments, and rents and prices. Among the reasons for the rise of relatively low density and a large capacity for the implementation of construction projects, the unusually high demand for rental offices, the development of the technology sector (startups, potential tenants) and a large flow of immigrants.
| 1 | Berlin |
| 2 | Hamburg |
| 3 | Dublin |
| 4 | Madrid |
| 5 | Copenhagen |
| 6 | Birmingham |
| 7 | Lisbon |
| 8 | Milan |
| 9 | Amsterdam |
| 10 | Munich |
In addition to Berlin, in the top 10 of the most promising cities for investment in 2016, includes two German cities — Hamburg and Munich.
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In 2016 Tranio recommends:
Yulia Kozhevnikova, Tranio
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